The United States Shuffle

Posted by Jacob Radke

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New IRS data showed that New York and California lost over $90 billion in income during COVID (2020-2021). Attribution of the $90 billion came from high earners relocating to lower income tax states. North Dakota just eliminated income tax in the lowest tax bracket, and dropped rates in higher bracket.

New York state lost $25 billion in adjusted gross income due to outmigration in 2021, on top of $20 billion lost in 2020. California reported a net loss of $29 billion in 2021, following a loss of $18 billion in 2020. Combined, the two states lost $92 billion across the two years.

And I’m sure you can guess the winners, Florida and Texas. Florida brought in 128k new households and $39 billion in new income in 2021 alone, up from the $28 billion gain in 2020. Texas brought in $11 billion in new income, mostly from California movers.

The demographics of the US has now shuffled. Who stayed and who went, and what does that mean for the new state inflows. These are my assumptions:

  1. Retirees stayed, because of deeper roots, lower income, and a better tax situation in general.
  2. 35-55 year-olds moved out, especially if they had high income (which is generally accompanied by a college degree).
  3. And people under 35 may have either just moved their or would be moving out, because of career, school, and broader opportunity.

When you think of tax attribution a lot comes from property taxes (both from commercial and residential), income, and sales tax. Local governments (including cities) collect most from property taxes, while state taxes broadly come from income and sales taxes.

Who makes up that tax attribution, its the people buying clothing for their children, buying a larger home or their first home, and earning a high income. Those people leaving make property values decline, corporations leave, and retail sales decrease. The prime age middle class is the tax base.

There are now more filled jobs in Florida, more new construction, more new businesses, and more economic gain.

Now the billion dollar question, because I am sure that the people reading this will be either democrats or republicans and will want to know the impact on the 2024 election as that heats up.

Right off the bat to note. I don’t think income taxes will increase, people don’t notice property and sales as much as they notice the deduction from their paycheck. In the midterms Florida held a republican majority and California held a democrat majority.

I hear plenty of worries about this migration bringing western or northern ideologies down to Texas and Florida and screwing up the very reason they came. But I think the movers will go to bat and keep the area the way it is and was because they moved for those reasons.

Texas and Florida will simply experience greater economic and demographic benefits than destruction.

Anyways here’s everything I read, wrote, and spoke this week.


LMP EP 31: How little financial wins become big

Running the Tape - Political Debt Ceiling Chicken

Fed rate decision May 2023: Fed increases rates a quarter point and signals a potential pause (

The FAAMGs are more than just five stocks 🤨 (

Low Stock Market Volatility Masks ‘Pain Under the Surface’ (

Short investor Hindenburg erases fifth of Icahn empire's value | Reuters

How Interest Rates & Inflation Impact Stock Market Valuations - A Wealth of Common Sense

The Good, The Bad & The Ugly - All Star Charts


JPMorgan Chase Takes Over First Republic After FDIC Seizes Bank - WSJ

And another one - by Douglas A. Boneparth - This is the Top (

Why Washington Let JPMorgan Buy First Republic - WSJ

S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: April 28, 2023 (

Five Reasons Municipals Have Rarely Defaulted | AB (

Investors Are Piling Into Actively Managed ETFs - WSJ

Deere Seeks Satellite Network to Connect Far-Flung Farms - WSJ

Chegg shares drop 40% after company says ChatGPT is killing its business (

Qualcomm (QCOM) earnings report Q2 2023 (

FTC proposes barring Meta from monetizing kids' data (

Alzheimer’s: Eli Lilly treatment donanemab slowed disease progression (


200 Years of Global Gold Production, by Country (

Why the next economic recovery may be stronger than expected | Capital Group

Visualizing the Assets and Liabilities of U.S. Banks (

Personal Finance

Find the Torture You're Comfortable With - A Wealth of Common Sense

Money Can't Buy Happiness...Or Can It? (

Are You Spending Too Much Money? - A Wealth of Common Sense

Ranked: The Best U.S. States for Retirement (


The Attention Economy - by kyla scanlon (

Evolving Minds - Not Boring by Packy McCormick

Visualizing the Biomass of All the World's Mammals (

A star ate a planet, and astronomers saw it happen for the first time - The Washington Post

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